China's Energy Future: How Clean, How Fast? - Professor Valerie Karplus,..
Δημοσιεύτηκε στις 15 Ιουλ 2016
China’s
energy system is changing rapidly on many fronts. Slower economic
growth is calling into question the need for sustained expansion of the
energy supply. At the same time, the structure of the economy is
shifting away from energy-intensive, export-led growth in favor of
domestic consumption. Severe local air pollution and its public health
consequences are creating pressure to reduce reliance on coal,
especially in the populous eastern coastal provinces. China has also
pledged to mitigate global climate change by reaching peak CO2 emissions
by 2030, by reducing CO2 intensity by 60-65% by 2030, relative to 2005,
and raising the contribution of non-fossil energy to 20% of the
nation’s primary energy mix by the same year.
What do these
developments mean for China’s energy system over the next 15 years?
Prof. Karplus will discuss what it will take to reach peak CO2 emissions
in China by 2030—and why there is a good chance that this peak will
arrive early. The presentation will begin with an overview of China’s
energy system and the policies and institutions that will influence the
nature and pace of a clean energy transition. She will then discuss
analysis by the MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate Project on what
China’s climate pledge, economic growth and structure transition, and
ongoing energy system reforms will mean for the pace and difficulty of
achieving a transition to cleaner forms of energy. She will also
elaborate on what climate policies focused on CO2 will mean for air
pollution and efforts to meet near-term air quality improvement goals.
The
presentation will conclude with a discussion of why a clean energy
transition will not be quick or easy. Using examples from China’s
experience in recent years, she will discuss the on-the-ground
implementation challenges that advocates of transition face, including
monitoring, reporting, and verification of CO2 emissions data,
conflicting incentives, and the need for greater policy coordination. A
discussion of the main uncertainties involved will complete this tour de
force of China’s energy future.
Valerie Karplus is an Assistant
Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of
Management. She studies resource and environmental management in firms
operating in diverse national and industry contexts, with a focus on the
role of institutions and management practices in explaining
performance.
She is an expert on China’s energy system,
including technology and business model innovation, energy system
governance, and the management of air pollution and climate change. From
2011 to 2015, she directed the MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate
Project, a five-year research effort focused on analyzing the design of
energy and climate change policy in China, and its domestic and global
impacts. Through continuing collaboration with Tsinghua University, she
studies the technological and organizational challenges of managing
energy and its environmental impacts in China.
She is a faculty
affiliate of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global
Change and the MIT Energy Initiative. She teaches Entrepreneurship
without Borders, New Models for Global Business, and is currently
developing a new course on Global Energy Markets and Policy. She holds a
BS in biochemistry and political science from Yale University and a PhD
in engineering systems from MIT.
energy system is changing rapidly on many fronts. Slower economic
growth is calling into question the need for sustained expansion of the
energy supply. At the same time, the structure of the economy is
shifting away from energy-intensive, export-led growth in favor of
domestic consumption. Severe local air pollution and its public health
consequences are creating pressure to reduce reliance on coal,
especially in the populous eastern coastal provinces. China has also
pledged to mitigate global climate change by reaching peak CO2 emissions
by 2030, by reducing CO2 intensity by 60-65% by 2030, relative to 2005,
and raising the contribution of non-fossil energy to 20% of the
nation’s primary energy mix by the same year.
What do these
developments mean for China’s energy system over the next 15 years?
Prof. Karplus will discuss what it will take to reach peak CO2 emissions
in China by 2030—and why there is a good chance that this peak will
arrive early. The presentation will begin with an overview of China’s
energy system and the policies and institutions that will influence the
nature and pace of a clean energy transition. She will then discuss
analysis by the MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate Project on what
China’s climate pledge, economic growth and structure transition, and
ongoing energy system reforms will mean for the pace and difficulty of
achieving a transition to cleaner forms of energy. She will also
elaborate on what climate policies focused on CO2 will mean for air
pollution and efforts to meet near-term air quality improvement goals.
The
presentation will conclude with a discussion of why a clean energy
transition will not be quick or easy. Using examples from China’s
experience in recent years, she will discuss the on-the-ground
implementation challenges that advocates of transition face, including
monitoring, reporting, and verification of CO2 emissions data,
conflicting incentives, and the need for greater policy coordination. A
discussion of the main uncertainties involved will complete this tour de
force of China’s energy future.
Valerie Karplus is an Assistant
Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of
Management. She studies resource and environmental management in firms
operating in diverse national and industry contexts, with a focus on the
role of institutions and management practices in explaining
performance.
She is an expert on China’s energy system,
including technology and business model innovation, energy system
governance, and the management of air pollution and climate change. From
2011 to 2015, she directed the MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate
Project, a five-year research effort focused on analyzing the design of
energy and climate change policy in China, and its domestic and global
impacts. Through continuing collaboration with Tsinghua University, she
studies the technological and organizational challenges of managing
energy and its environmental impacts in China.
She is a faculty
affiliate of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global
Change and the MIT Energy Initiative. She teaches Entrepreneurship
without Borders, New Models for Global Business, and is currently
developing a new course on Global Energy Markets and Policy. She holds a
BS in biochemistry and political science from Yale University and a PhD
in engineering systems from MIT.
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